COVID-19 Dataset Clustering based on K-Means and EM Algorithms

In this paper, a COVID-19 dataset is analyzed using a combination of K-Means and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms to cluster the data. The purpose of this method is to gain insight into and interpret the various components of the data. The study focuses on tracking the evolution of confirmed, death, and recovered cases from March to October 2020, using a two-dimensional dataset approach. K-Means is used to group the data into three categories: "Confirmed-Recovered”, "Confirmed-Death”, and "Recovered-Death”, and each category is modeled using a bivariate Gaussian density. The optimal value for k, which represents the number of groups, is determined using the Elbow method. The results indicate that the clusters generated by K-Means provide limited information, whereas the EM algorithm reveals the correlation between "Confirmed-Recovered”, "Confirmed-Death”, and "Recovered-Death”. The advantages of using the EM algorithm include stability in computation and improved clustering through the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). © 2023,International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications. All Rights Reserved.

Analysis Pre and Post COVID-19 Pandemic Rorschach Test Data of Using EM Algorithms and GMM Models

The global spread of the COVID-19 virus has become one of the greatest challenges that humanity has faced in recent years. The unprecedented circumstances of forced isolation and uncertainty that it has imposed on us continue to impact our mental well-being, whether or not we have been directly affected by the virus. Over a period of nearly three years (2017-2020), data was collected from multiple administrations of the Rorschach test, one of the most renowned and extensively studied psychological tests. This study involved the clustering of data, collected through the RAP3 software, to analyze the distinctive trends in data recorded before and after the pandemic. This was achieved through the implementation of the well-established machine learning algorithm, Expectation-Maximization. The proposed solution effectively identifies the key variables that significantly influence the subject's score and provides a reliable solution. Additionally, the solution offers an intuitive visualization that can assist psychologists in accurately interpreting shifts in trends and response distributions within a large amount of data in the two periods. © 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

MODELING AND CLASSIFICATION OF DEATHS DUE TO COVID-19 BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUE

Statistical classification is recently considered one of the most important and most common methods in machine learning models and consists of building mod-els that define the target of research interest. There are many classification methods that can be used to predict the value of a response. In this article, we are interested in machine learning applications to classify the new deaths due to Covid-19. Under consideration BIC criterion, the experimental results have shown that the E (Equal variance) with four is the best mixture model. The con-vergence in the algorithm of expectation-maximization is satisfied after 167 itera-tions. The World Health Organization has presented the source of data over the period of March 2, 2020 to August 5, 2020. © 2023 Society of Thermal Engineers of Serbia. Published by the Vinča Institute of Nuclear Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia. This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 terms and conditions.

Automatic illness prediction system through speech.

Due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the curfew caused by it, many people have sought to find an ADPS on the internet in the last few years. This hints to a new age of medical treatment, all the more so if the number of internet users continues to expand. As a result, automatic illness prediction online applications have attracted the interest of a large number of researchers worldwide. This work aims to develop and implement an automated illness prediction system based on speech. The system will be designed to forecast the sort of ailment a patient is suffering from based on his voice, but this was not feasible during the trial, therefore the diseases were divided into three categories (painful, light pain and psychological pain), and then the diagnose process were implemented accordingly. The medical dataset named "speech, transcription, and intent" served as the baseline for this study. The smoothness, MFCC, and SCV properties were used in this work, which demonstrated their high representation to human being medical situations. The noise reduction forward-backward filter was used to eliminate noise from wave files captured online in order to account for the high level of noise seen in the deployed dataset. For this study, a hybrid feature selection method was created and built that combined the output of a genetic algorithm (GA) with the inputs of a NN algorithm. Classification was performed using SVM, neural network, and GMM. The greatest results obtained were 94.55% illness classification accuracy in terms of SVM. The results showed that diagnosing illness through speech is a difficult process, especially when diagnosing each type of illness separately, but when grouping the different illness types into groups, depending on the amount of pain and the psychological situation of the patient, the results were much higher.

Three Experimental Common High-Risk Procedures: Emission Characteristics Identification and Source Intensity Estimation in Biosafety Laboratory.

Biosafety laboratory is an important place to study high-risk microbes. In biosafety laboratories, with the outbreak of infectious diseases such as COVID-19, experimental activities have become increasingly frequent, and the risk of exposure to bioaerosols has increased. To explore the exposure risk of biosafety laboratories, the intensity and emission characteristics of laboratory risk factors were investigated. In this study, high-risk microbe samples were substituted with Serratia marcescens as the model bacteria. The resulting concentration and particle size segregation of the bioaerosol produced by three experimental procedures (spill, injection, and sample drop) were monitored, and the emission sources' intensity were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the aerosol concentration produced by injection and sample drop was 103 CFU/m3, and that by sample spill was 102 CFU/m3. The particle size of bioaerosol is mainly segregated in the range of 3.3-4.7 µm. There are significant differences in the influence of risk factors on source intensity. The intensity of sample spill, injection, and sample drop source is 3.6 CFU/s, 78.2 CFU/s, and 664 CFU/s. This study could provide suggestions for risk assessment of experimental operation procedures and experimental personnel protection.

Using Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting and Gaussian Mixture Model to Classify and Predict New Cases of Covid-19 in Saudi Arabia

In light of the global events resulting from the spread of the Corona pandemic and viral mutations, there is a need to examine epidemic data in terms of numbers of infected and deaths, different geographical locations, and the dynamics of disease dissemination virus. In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), since the spread of the virus on March 2, 2020, the number of confirmed cases has increased to 599044 cases until January 13, 2022, of which 262 are critical cases, while the number of recovery cases have reached 55035 cases, and deaths are 8901. It is a serious disease, and its spread is difficult to contain. The number of cases has continued to grow rapidly since the first cases appeared. Guess and Buck's model for forecasting time-series data is an important figure that cannot be crossed when predicting fuzzy time-series, although several modifications have been made to the model to improve the accuracy of its results. The Gaussian mixture model and the fuzzy method for modelling new cases in Saudi Arabia were used as machine learning methods to classify and predict new cases of the virus in Saudi Arabia. Foggy time series forecasting. The studied datasets from the World Health Organization from May 15 to August 12, 2020 were used.

Forecasting and classification of new cases of COVID 19 before vaccination using decision trees and Gaussian mixture model

Regarding the pandemic taking place in the world from the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic and viral mutations, the need has arisen to analyze the epidemic data in terms of numbers of infected and deaths, different geographical regions, and the dynamics of the spread of the virus. In China, the total number of reported infections is 224,659 on June 11, 2022. In this paper, the Gaussian Mixture Model and the decision tree method were used to classify and predict new cases of the virus. Although we focus mainly on the Chinese case, the model is general and adapted to any context without loss of validity of the qualitative results. The Chi-Squared (χ2) Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) was applied in creating the decision tree structure, the data has been classified into five classes, according to the BIC criterion. The best mixture model is the E (Equal variance) with five components. The considered data sets of the world health organization (WHO) were used from January 5, 2020, to 12, November 2021. We provide numerical results based on the Chinese case. © 2022 THE AUTHORS

Enhanced Convex Hull based Clustering for High Population Density Avoidance under D2D Enabled Network

Global pandemics such as Covid-19 have led to massive loss of human lives and strict lockdown measures worldwide. To return to a certain level of normalcy, community awareness on avoiding high population density areas is significantly important for infection prevention and control. With the availability of new telecommunication technologies, it is possible to provide highly informative population clustering data back to people using wireless aerial agents (WAAs) placed in a local area. Hence, a service architecture that allows users to access the localization of population clusters is proposed. Further, a convex hull-based clustering method, enhanced population clustering (E-PC), is proposed. This method refined the result of conventional clustering methods such as K-means and Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Moreover, the potential in E-PC to achieve the same or higher results compared to the original K-means and GMM, while consuming lesser data points, is demonstrated. On average, E-PC improved the cluster detection performance in both K-means and GMM by 18.93% under different environments such as remote, rural, suburban, and urban in terms of silhouette score. Further, E-PC allows a 15% data reduction which results in decreasing the computational cost and energy consumption of the WAAs.

COVID-19 CLUSTERING BY PROVINCE: A CASE STUDY OF COVID-19 CASES IN INDONESIA

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Indonesia has caused issues in many sectors such as health, economy, and education. Several actions had been taken by the government to prevent and forestall the spread of the coronavirus infection. However, right now there are still many new cases emerging especially in cities with dense population. In the meantime, actions taken from the government are based on the classification of the severity of new cases;there are red zone, yellow zone and green zone. Therefore, mapping cities into zone is critical because it concerns the right decision to be implemented. This paper aimed to cluster the severity of each province in Indonesia based on the number of cases, recovered, and casualties using 3 clustering methods namely K-Means, K-Medoids, and Gaussian mixture model. The result shows that the most optimal clustering method is the Gaussian mixture model, while the least optimal method for clustering is the K-Means. Furthermore, it is also discovered that the cluster always changes overtime, and the cluster can shift depending on the corresponding parameter. © 2022 ICIC International.

Emotion Mining from Speech in the Covid-19 Era: An Exploratory Study

Speech is the most effective form of communication because it is not limited to just the linguistic components but carries the speaker's emotions laced within the components like tone of voice and cues like cries and sighs. This paper aims at studying the research done in the past and applying it to the Covid-19 era.The pandemic is of a great magnitude, affecting every aspect of life including emotions. This time period requires research in determining the most dominant emotions in conversations, to serve as a reference for future research and as a contrast to the research done in the past. Previous papers have identified emotions like happiness, anger, fear and sadness using feature extraction algorithms like MFCC (Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients and numerous classification algorithms like GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model), SVM (Support Vector Machine), KNN (K-Nearest-neighbor) and HMM (Hidden Markov Model). Some research has pointed towards ASR (Automatic Speech Recognition), N-Grams and vector space modeling. This paper aims at recognizing the most suitable algorithms for determining the pandemic specific emotions in speech. © 2021 IEEE.

A comparative study for predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) crippled the world economy and engendered irreparable damages to the lives and health of millions. To control the spread of the disease, it is important to make appropriate policy decisions at the right time. This can be facilitated by a robust mathematical model that can forecast the prevalence and incidence of COVID-19 with greater accuracy. This study presents an optimized ARIMA model to forecast COVID-19 cases. The proposed method first obtains a trend of the COVID-19 data using a low-pass Gaussian filter and then predicts/forecasts data using the ARIMA model. We benchmarked the optimized ARIMA model for 7-days and 14-days forecasting against five forecasting strategies used recently on the COVID-19 data. These include the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, composite Gaussian growth model, composite Logistic growth model, and dictionary learning-based model. We have considered the daily infected cases, cumulative death cases, and cumulative recovered cases of the COVID-19 data of the ten most affected countries in the world, including India, USA, UK, Russia, Brazil, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, and Colombia. The proposed algorithm outperforms the existing models on the data of most of the countries considered in this study.

Single- and Multi-carrier Systems Affected by Impulsive Noise: Covid-19 View

In this work we present a fully stochastic model of performance analysis of single- and multi-carrier modulations (SCM and MCM) in communication systems affected by impulsive noise. The key performance parameter of the model is the symbol error rate (SER), which is fully determined as a function of the system parameters, including the frame length, symbol power, white noise power, impulsive noise power, and the probability of the impulse events. We derive closed-form analytical expressions for the systems and compare them with simulation results, showing very good agreement for all the impulsive noise scenarios. Specifically, we show under which conditions a MCM system performs better than a SCM system, and vice versa, which can be used to apply an optimal control policy that minimizes SER. The developed model for SCM and MCM systems is conceptually applied to the Covid-19 phenomenology, and consequently the results obtained for SCM and MCM scenarios, are interpreted as decision and management of social distancing (lock/roam) policies. Specifically, we also show under which conditions the "roam" strategy performs better than the "lock" strategy, and vice versa, which can be used to develop an optimal control policy that minimizes the mortality rate (MR). However, the proposed analytical model for the Covid-19 scenario, obtained assuming the similarity with the SCM/MCM systems, could not be tested in full due to the lack of relevant data. Therefore, any management decision cannot be based (only) on the presented model adapted to Covid-19, and necessarily requests the integration of experts opinions. Author

Spatio-temporal mixture process estimation to detect dynamical changes in population.

Population monitoring is a challenge in many areas such as public health and ecology. We propose a method to model and monitor population distributions over space and time, in order to build an alert system for spatio-temporal data changes. Assuming that mixture models can correctly model populations, we propose a new version of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to better estimate the number of clusters and their parameters at the same time. This algorithm is compared to existing methods on several simulated datasets. We then combine the algorithm with a temporal statistical model, allowing for the detection of dynamical changes in population distributions, and call the result a spatio-temporal mixture process (STMP). We test STMPs on synthetic data, and consider several different behaviors of the distributions, to fit this process. Finally, we validate STMPs on a real data set of positive diagnosed patients to coronavirus disease 2019. We show that our pipeline correctly models evolving real data and detects epidemic changes.

Learning Interpretable Mixture of Weibull Distributions-Exploratory Analysis of How Economic Development Influences the Incidence of COVID-19 Deaths

This paper presents an algorithm for learning local Weibull models, whose operating regions are represented by fuzzy rules. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated in estimating the mortality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reproducible results show that there is a significant difference between mortality rates of countries due to their economic situation, urbanization, and the state of the health sector. The proposed method is compared with the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard regression method. The distribution functions of these two methods are close to each other, so the proposed method can estimate efficiently.

Enabling Automatic Detection of Anomalies in Wastewater: A Highly Simplified Approach to Defining “Normal” in Complex Chemical Mixtures

Wastewater treatment demands management of influent conditions to stabilize biological processes. Generally wastewater collection systems lack advance warning of approaching water parcels with anomalous characteristics, which could then be diverted for testing or pre-treatment. A major challenge in achieving this goal is identifying anomalies against the complex chemical background of wastewaters. This work evaluates unsupervised clustering methods to characterize “normal” wastewater characteristics, using >17 months of 10-min resolution absorbance spectrometry data collected at an operating wastewater treatment facility. Comparison of results using K-means, GMM, Hierarchical, and DBSCAN clustering shows minimal intra-cluster variability achieved using K-means. The four K-means clusters include three representing 99% of samples, with the remaining cluster (<0.3% of samples) representing atypical measurements, demonstrating utility in identifying both underlying modalities of wastewater characteristics and outliers. K-means clustering provides a better separation than grouping based on factors such as month, precipitation, or flow (with 25% overlap at 1-σ level, compared to 93, 93, and 83%, respectively) and enables identification of patterns that are not visible in factor-driven grouping, e.g., shows that summer and November months have a characteristic type of behavior. When evaluated with respect to wastewater influent changes occurring during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the K-means approach shows a distinct change in strength of diurnal patterns when compared to non-pandemic periods during the same season. This method may therefore be useful both as a tool for fast anomaly detection in wastewaters, contributing to improved infrastructure resilience, as well for providing overall analysis of temporal patterns in wastewater characteristics. Copyright © 2021 Navato and Mueller.

Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland.

We investigate the problem of mathematical modeling of new corona virus (COVID-19) in Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to characterize the COVID-19 disease and to predict a new / future wave of COVID-19. This prediction is very much needed to prepare for medical setup and continue with the upcoming program. Specifically, data related to the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day are considered, and then we attempt to predict the data and statistical activity. A close match between actual data and analytical data by using the Gaussian mixture model shows that it is a suitable model to present new cases of COVID-19. In addition, it is thought that there are N waves of COVID-19 and that information for each future wave is also present in current and previous waves as well. Using this concept, predictions of a future wave can be made.

Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 pandemic using Gaussian mixture model.

COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus and has played havoc on many countries across the globe. A majority of the world population is now living in a restricted environment for more than a month with minimal economic activities, to prevent exposure to this highly infectious disease. Medical professionals are going through a stressful period while trying to save the larger population. In this paper, we develop two different models to capture the trend of a number of cases and also predict the cases in the days to come, so that appropriate preparations can be made to fight this disease. The first one is a mathematical model accounting for various parameters relating to the spread of the virus, while the second one is a non-parametric model based on the Fourier decomposition method (FDM), fitted on the available data. The study is performed for various countries, but detailed results are provided for the India, Italy, and United States of America (USA). The turnaround dates for the trend of infected cases are estimated. The end-dates are also predicted and are found to agree well with a very popular study based on the classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Worldwide, the total number of expected cases and deaths are 12.7 × 106 and 5.27 × 105, respectively, predicted with data as of 06-06-2020 and 95% confidence intervals. The proposed study produces promising results with the potential to serve as a good complement to existing methods for continuous predictive monitoring of the COVID-19 pandemic.